Pugnacious McCain

GOP Senators Reassess Views About McCain
His Old Foes Still Wary Of His Pugnacious Style
By Paul KaneWashington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 4, 2008; A01

John McCain once testified under oath that a Senate colleague inappropriately used tobacco corporation donations to sway votes on legislation. He cursed out another colleague in front of 20 senators and staff members, questioning the senator's grip on immigration legislation. And, on the Senate floor, McCain (R-Ariz.) accused another colleague of "egregious behavior" for helping a defense contractor in a move he said resembled "corporate scandals." (more...)

McCain: Super Tue Decides

McCain: Super Tuesday may end the GOP race
February 2, 2008

McCain told reporters Super Tuesday might end the Republican race.

(CNN) – Republican John McCain said Friday that Super Tuesday could mark the finish line of his party’s presidential race this year.

“Do I think the race will be over on Tuesday? Not often do I ask for divine intercession, but I have asked for that. Yes,” he told reporters on a campaign flight to Chicago. Republicans in 21 states will weigh in on Super Tuesday, February 5.

“From what we see in the polls, there is a very good chance it could be over on Tuesday,” said the Arizona senator, adding: “The sooner we get that done, the sooner I can go to work on uniting the party." (more...)

Obama on McCain

Blogger notes: Since Bill Clinton predicted that Hillary and John McCain, if both got nominated, would have too civilized campaigns, maybe there is more to watch if Obama is on the ticket instead of Hillary...

Obama Says He'd Be Better Against McCain
Feb 1, 8:02 PM (ET)
By NEDRA PICKLER

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Democratic Sen. Barack Obama sees one of the best arguments for his presidential candidacy in the rise of Republican Sen. John McCain. McCain has become Obama's favorite punching bag, an easier mark in front of partisan audiences than the rival Obama will have to beat first to get to the general election - Hillary Rodham Clinton. (more...)

Guthrie endorses Paul

ELECTION 2008
Arlo Guthrie endorses Ron Paul
Huckabee has Norris, McCain has Stallone
Posted: January 31, 20081:00 a.m. Eastern
© 2008 WorldNetDaily.com

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee has been endorsed by martial arts champion and movie star Chuck Norris; rival John McCain has the support of "Rocky" star Sylvestor Stallone. Now Ron Paul has announced the endorsement of Arlo Guthrie. (More...)

TX Governor Endorses McCain

Gov. Perry Endorses John McCain
Jan 31, 2008 12:17 PM PST

Gov. Rick Perry on Thursday announced his endorsement of presidential candidate John McCain.

Perry said he is backing McCain, because he is the candidate who would do the most for and win the war on terror.

"Two words: Hilary Clinton; that kinda gets everybody focused on what the alternative is," Perry said. "How would that make you feel if you were to see her as president? Where do you think the nation would be?" asked KXAN Austin News' Michelle Valles."Hilary Clinton as a president? I guess 'to hell in a hand basket' probably would not be a good quote, but that's the first thing that came to mind," Perry replied.

Perry spoke by telephone earlier in the day with McCain and said he expects the Arizona senator to visit Texas soon to see what the state has done to try to combat crime along the border.

The governor would not expand on his political aspirations after his term ends.

Perry announced his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani in October. Giuliani bowed out early Wednesday evening, throwing his support to John McCain.

Texas' primary is March 4, well after the huge slate of Feb. 5 primaries that could decide the nomination.
.

Romney Accuses McCain

Romney Accuses McCain of 'Dirty Tricks'

Jan 31 12:04 AM US/Eastern

By LIZ SIDOTIAssociated Press Writer

SIMI VALLEY, Calif. (AP) - Republican Mitt Romney accused John McCain of using dirty tricks by suggesting the former Massachusetts governor wanted a deadline for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq, in a spirited debate Wednesday night that underscored the intensity of their presidential rivalry.

Coming 24 hours after McCain defeated him in Florida, Romney vented his frustrations over the Arizona senator's claims from last weekend.

"I have never, ever supported a specific timetable" for withdrawing troops, Romney said.

McCain's accusation on the eve of Tuesday's primary, he said, "sort of falls into the dirty tricks that I think Ronald Reagan would have found reprehensible."

The debate was held in the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., six days before more than 20 states hold primaries or caucuses that could determine who succeeds President Bush as the party's standard-bearer.

McCain stuck to his guns, saying, "of course he said he wanted a timetable" for a withdrawal. McCain had made the allegation in Florida as he tried to shift the debate from the ailing economy, a stronger issue for Romney, a former venture capitalist and businessman.

Last April, Romney said U.S. and Iraqi leaders "have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about" in private.

In Wednesday's debate, Romney said he was not calling for a specific withdrawal date. "It's simply wrong, and the senator knows it," he said. "I will not pull our troops out until we have brought success in Iraq."

For 90 minutes, Romney and McCain sharply challenged each other's conservative credentials and ability to lead the country. But they generally remained civil, and each called the other "a fine man."

Romney tried to portray McCain, who performs well among political independents, as out of the conservative mainstream as the contest moves toward a cluster of states where only registered Republicans can vote. He said the Arizona senator twice voted against President Bush's tax cuts and pushed campaign finance reforms that restricted fundraising and spending. The Republican establishment embraced the tax cuts and opposed the new campaign law, which many saw as helpful to Democrats.

"Those views are outside the view of mainstream Republican thought," Romney said. He made similar arguments in Florida, but lost to McCain by 5 percentage points.

McCain disputed the claims. "I'm proud of my conservative record," he said.

In a counterpunch, he said Romney left Massachusetts with high taxes and a large debt. "His job creation was the third worst in the country," McCain said, a claim Romney rejected.

The debate allowed McCain and Romney to focus on one another after Florida voters left no doubt that they are the party's two viable contenders. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani left the race earlier Wednesday and endorsed McCain.

During the debate, The Associated Press reported that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would endorse McCain on Thursday. Schwarzenegger was in the audience, as was Nancy Reagan, widow of the former president.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas also participated in the debate televised by CNN, but largely watched as the two front-runners, who were seated next to each other, trade barbs. Huckabee protested, "this isn't a two-man race."

"If you want to talk conservative credentials, let me get in on that," said Huckabee, who has won no contest since the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus.

Paul reiterated his criticisms of the Iraq war and U.S. monetary policies.

McCain tried to deflect questions on illegal immigration, a sore point with many Republicans who resented his push for a Senate bill, ultimately unsuccessful, that would have granted a path to legal status for millions of undocumented immigrants now in the country.

Asked if he would vote for his bill now, McCain replied, "it won't" come to a vote "because people want the borders secured first." He said he supports new efforts to prevent illegal crossings.

California is one of several states voting on Tuesday that has a large immigrant population.

Romney said McCain opposed Bush's first-term tax cuts because they were tilted largely toward the rich. But Romney defended the cuts, saying, "I believe in getting rates down. I think that builds our economy."

McCain said he opposes tax cuts that are not coupled with spending restraints. Republicans lost congressional seats in 2006 less because of the Iraq war than because of out-of-control spending that alienated conservatives, McCain said.

Schwarzenegger for McCain

Gov. Schwarzenegger to Endorse McCain
Jan 30, 9:20 PM (ET)
By LIZ SIDOTI and MICHAEL R. BLOOD

SIMI VALLEY, Calif. (AP) - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain on Thursday, giving a certain boost to the Republican presidential front-runner six days before California's high-prize primary.

The two will appear at a news conference after touring a Los Angeles-based solar energy company and the governor will make his endorsement official, his senior aides confirmed Wednesday.

Schwarzenegger's endorsement is yet another setback for Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who saw Florida slip from his grasp Tuesday after McCain rolled up the support of that state's two top elected Republicans, Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez.

His strategy in tatters, Romney plans to offer himself as the conservative alternative to McCain as he pushes ahead in hopes of winning enough delegates to topple the Arizona senator when 21 states vote in the Republican contest on Tuesday.

Schwarzenegger's move comes as McCain plows ahead toward the nomination, the only Republican candidate to have won three hotly contested primaries since voting began earlier this month.

"Governor Schwarzenegger is an exceptional governor and we are honored that he has decided to endorse Senator McCain, and look forward to the event tomorrow," said Steve Schmidt, a senior McCain adviser who managed Schwarzenegger's 2006 campaign.

The four-term senator is running strongly ahead of his competitors in California, which offers a whopping 170 delegates to the Republican nominating convention. Candidates secure three delegates for each of the state's 53 congressional districts they win in the primary, in which only Republicans can vote.

The ultimate effect of Schwarzenegger's endorsement is unclear. The celebrity governor and former actor is universally known in the state, and his political network certainly will be helpful to McCain, who has virtually no organized effort in California after his candidacy nearly collapsed. The actor-turned-governor also is a prolific fundraiser.

But Schwarzenegger has a strained relationship with some conservatives in his own party and McCain, himself, is fighting to convince GOP rank-and-file that he's committed to conservative values. Schwarzenegger's nod could exacerbate concerns about McCain among the party establishment.

Schwarzenegger also is taking heat from state Republicans who argue he's been too willing to bend to the wishes of the Democratic-controlled Legislature. At the same time, California faces a $14.5 billion budget deficit over the next year-and-half, and the governor has rankled the state's powerful education lobby with his proposal to cut spending by 10 percent from state agencies to deal with the financial crisis.

McCain and Schwarzenegger have been friends for years, and the two share a bond over their work on global warming issues as well as their similar independent streaks. Aides say Schwarzenegger long has respected McCain's push to eliminate wasteful spending in Washington, protect the environment and fix a broken immigration system.

The governor offered high praise of McCain throughout the campaign, calling him a "great senator" and "very good friend," and the two appeared together at the Port of Los Angeles last year. "We share common philosophy and goals for this country," McCain said at the time.

But Schwarzenegger always has stopped short of endorsing McCain, given that another friend, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, also was in the race.

Earlier this month, Schwarzenegger told reporters he would not make an endorsement in the GOP primary, saying then: "It doesn't help me, and it doesn't help the state of California." But senior advisers say Giuliani's departure from the race Wednesday changed the dynamics of the decision for Schwarzenegger, and he decided to go ahead with the endorsement as it was clear that Giuliani's candidacy was over.

Giuliani Backs McCain

Giuliani Prepares to Exit, Back McCain
Jan 29, 10:40 PM (ET)

By DEVLIN BARRETT

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Rudy Giuliani, who bet his presidential hopes on Florida only to come in third, prepared to quit the race Tuesday and endorse his friendliest rival, John McCain.

The former New York mayor stopped short of announcing he was stepping down, but delivered a valedictory speech that was more farewell than fight-on.

Giuliani finished a distant third to winner McCain and second-place finisher Mitt Romney. Republican officials said Giuliani would endorse McCain on Wednesday in California. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity in advance of the public announcement.

"The responsibility of leadership doesn't end with a single campaign, it goes on and you continue to fight for it," Giuliani said, as supporters with tight smiles crowded behind him. "We ran a campaign that was uplifting."

Asked directly if he was dropping out of the race, Giuliani said only: "I'm going to California."
Republican presidential candidates are scheduled to debate in Simi Valley Wednesday night.

Tuesday's result was a remarkable collapse for Giuliani. Last year, he occupied the top of national polls and seemed destined to turn conventional wisdom on end by running as a moderate Republican who supported abortion rights, gay rights and gun control.

"Elections are about fighting for a cause larger than ourselves," he said at one point, echoing one of McCain's most popular refrains.

The results seriously decimated Giuliani's unconventional strategy, which relied heavily on Florida to launch him into the coast-to-coast Feb. 5 nominating contests.

He largely bypassed the early voting states, figuring that the early states would produce multiple winners and no front-runner.

But Florida proved to be less than hospitable. The state's top two Republicans - Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist - endorsed McCain. And Giuliani, who once led in state polls, saw his support swiftly erode.

After seven contests, Giuliani had just one delegate and four sixth-place finishes. His third-place showing in Florida was his best. He finished fourth in New Hampshire.

Giuliani's bid for the nomination was based on his leadership. The only question was how many voters would follow.

His stalwart performance as New York mayor in the tense days after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks earned him national magazine covers, international accolades and widespread praise. Yet, Giuliani was always a Republican anomaly - a moderate-to-liberal New Yorker who backed abortion rights, gay rights and gun control in a party dominated by Southern conservatives.

And even though several of his rivals were divorced and remarried, none had the dissolution of their second marriage and trysts with current wife Judith Nathan attract as much attention.

In the early days of the presidential campaign, Giuliani's mayoral record and familiar name propelled him to the lead in the polls, but voters admitted they had lots to learn about him and his positions on the issues.

Romney, McCain Showdown

McCain, Romney Set for Florida Showdown
By LIZ SIDOTI

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney spent a week hammering each other on the economy and national security heading into the Florida presidential primary that could solidify one man as the party's front-runner.

All that was left to do Tuesday was urge people to vote.

Critical phone calls, negative radio ads, and bitter, personal exchanges marked the final hours before the primary. The contest offers the winner the state's 57 delegates to GOP nominating convention and serves as a gateway to the 20-plus states with nominating contests on Feb. 5.

Recent polls show McCain, the Arizona senator, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, in a dead heat; both hope a Florida win will provide a burst of energy heading into the virtual national primary a week later.

Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor who has lost six straight contests, is seeking a win to remain a viable candidate. But he is far behind in the polls, and a poor showing could force him to abandon his bid. Also lagging is Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who hasn't won since the Iowa caucuses nearly a month ago and hardly competed in Florida.

The contest is so tight that just about any factor could tip the balance.
More so than his rival, Romney has a get-out-the-vote effort as well as early and absentee voting programs. He's spent considerable time and money in the state in the past year. The recent focus on the economy works in his favor; he's been pushing his private-sector credentials and arguing that he's the most capable to turn the country away from the brink of recession.

Conversely, McCain is backed by Florida's top two Republican elected officials, Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist, and has endorsements from a slew of Florida newspapers. The former Vietnam prisoner of war also has universal name recognition, as well as ownership of an issue important to the large number of veterans and active military in the state - national security.

McCain is expected to do well in areas with a strong military presence - Pensacola, Jacksonville, Tampa. He's also hoping for a strong turnout in Miami, with its heavy Cuban-American population, and Orlando, a melting pot. Romney is fighting for the southwest part of the state around Fort Myers and Sarasota; it's much like the Midwest, where he was raised. Another likely stronghold, Palm Beach and Broward County, home to many Northeastern transplants.

Up for grabs is the corridor along Interstate 4 between Tampa and Daytona Beach, a swing area that has seen much growth and is home to roughly two-thirds of the Republican primary vote.

McCain, Romney Tie at 27%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, January 27, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows a two-man race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. John McCain and Mitt Romney are tied for the lead at 27% and no one else is close. Mike Huckabee is eleven points back at 16%, Rudy Giuliani is at 14%, and Ron Paul is supported by 6% of Likely Republican Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).

New polling data released today shows Romney with a six point lead over McCain in Florida. But, the survey was conducted just before Governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain and nearly one-in-four likely voters still might change their mind.

Looking ahead, McCain leads in New York, McCain and Giuliani are close in New Jersey, while McCain and Romney are close in California. Huckabee leads in Georgia, Huckabee and McCain are essentially tied in both Missouri and Alabama.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, has gotten much tighter. It’s now Hillary Clinton 40%, Barack Obama 31% and John Edwards 17% (see recent daily numbers). In general election match-ups, Clinton and Obama both lead Romney, McCain, and Huckabee.

Voters nationwide now agree that the economy is the top voting issue for Election 2008. But it means different things to Democrats than it does to Republicans.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. All of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the polls closed in South Carolina yesterday. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Monday at 11:00 a.m.

New data for the Democratic race in Florida shows Clinton still on top, but her lead is a bit smaller than earlier in the week. Dick Morris believes that Bill Clinton’s temper is starting to hurt Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Exit polling data shows that may have been the case during Obama’s big win in South Carolina.

Looking ahead on the Primary calendar, Obama leads in Georgia. However, Clinton leads Missouri, Alabama, California, New York, and New Jersey.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a 62.2
Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll.

Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends. Rasmussen Reports also provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Each update includes approximately 900 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 800 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Super Tuesday not Deciding

Super Tuesday Won't Decide Nominations

Jan 24, 6:57 AM (ET)

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER

WASHINGTON (AP) - Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday. The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.

"A lot of people were predicting that this presidential election on both sides was going to be this massive sprint that ended on Feb. 5," said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. Now it's looking as if the primaries after Super Tuesday - including such big, delegate-rich states as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania - could grow in importance.

"Maybe some states were better off waiting," said Backus.

That doesn't mean Super Tuesday won't be super after all. Voters in more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake.

But it's possible Feb. 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.

Here's why:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. She has 236, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, giving her a 100-delegate lead over Sen. Barack Obama.

There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every single one of those delegates, it wouldn't be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally - not winner-take- all.

The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote.

The wild card for the Democrats involves the superdelegates, nearly 800 elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. They are free to support any candidate they choose at the national convention, regardless of the outcome of the primaries.

The AP has interviewed more than 90 percent of the superdelegates who have been identified by the party, and most have yet to endorse a candidate. Many say they will not make endorsements until after their states vote.

The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36.

There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination - but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.

"I think you could have two or three viable (GOP) candidates" following Super Tuesday, said Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett.

Ohio is waiting in the wings with its 85 Republican delegates a month later, on March 4, a date it shares with Texas, which will award 137 GOP delegates.

Other big states with later contests include Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12, Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination on March 2 - the earliest date in modern times - with a string of Super Tuesday primary victories. In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore both clinched their parties' nominations on March 14, each sweeping a string of Southern primaries that day.

This year, Super Tuesday has grown to include more than 20 states, and it was moved up to Feb. 5 as states leapfrogged each other in an attempt to increase their influence in picking the nominees.

With so many states voting so early, the stage was set for a lengthy general election campaign after nominees were settled early in the year.

Some think that is still a good bet, especially if candidates who don't fare well on Feb. 5 decide to drop out.

"It may take a while for Obama or Clinton to get 50 percent plus one of the delegates. But if it does narrow to a two-person race, then the Democratic nomination will be determined relatively soon," said David Rohde, a political science professor at Duke University.

Rohde said the nomination contests may drag all the way to the conventions this summer. But he added, "It is also possible for aliens from Mars to land tomorrow and interfere with the election."

Clinton will 'say anything'

Clinton will 'say anything and do nothing': Obama

Jan 24 11:10 AM US/Eastern

Barack Obama fought back against rival Hillary Clinton with stinging attacks on her record Thursday as the Democratic rivals battled for votes in South Carolina and beyond.

The two White House hopefuls have taken their war of words to the airwaves in this conservative southern state where polls show Obama with a double digit lead over Clinton ahead of a Democratic primary here Saturday.

The state is critical for the young Illinois senator, following Clinton victories in New Hampshire and Nevada, and amid polls that show her as the frontrunner nationally.
Faced with a Clinton radio spot -- or advertisement -- claiming he endorses Republican ideas, Obama shot back with a denial and a drubbing of her record.

"She championed NAFTA -- even though it has cost South Carolina thousands of jobs. And worst of all, it was Hillary Clinton who voted for George Bush's war in Iraq," an announcer says in the new radio spot.

"She'll say anything, and change nothing. It's time to turn the page," the spot says.

Clinton returned to South Carolina Thursday to deliver what she billed as a major speech on how she would deal with the economic crisis and mortgage crunch gripping the United States.

She made whirlwind campaign trips Tuesday and Wednesday to California, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with an eye on big states that could decide the Democratic nomination, leaving her husband Bill Clinton on the front lines in South Carolina.

While her husband assailed Obama, the former first lady barely even referred to her rival, instead delving deep into healthcare, the mortgage crisis and education -- key concerns of her core blue collar voters.

The former president hurled a venomous new broadside against the Illinois senator Wednesday, accusing him of a political "hit job" and soft treatment from the media.

Bill Clinton was not the only spouse on the stump in South Carolina. Obama deployed his wife Michelle on a tour of the state, where overwhelming black support has propelled the Illinois senator to a 19-point lead over Hillary Clinton, according to a new Zogby poll.

Clinton leads the latest national poll of US voters, with a nine-point lead over Obama, but that lead has shrunk from 24 points in December, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News poll found.

In the poll, released late Wednesday, Clinton was first among Democrats with 42 percent, Obama was second with 33 percent and former senator John Edwards was third with 11.

However, the poll also found that about two-thirds of Democratic voters now say they are "certain" about who they will vote for, making last minute changes less likely, the Los Angeles Times said in its analysis of the numbers.

Arizona Senator John McCain led the Republican field with 22 percent, followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (18 percent), former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (17 percent), and former New York mayor Rudi Giuliani (12 percent).

The top three Republicans were in a dead heat when the four-point poll's margin of error was taken into account, and pundits said that the Republican race remained wide open.

The Republican candidates were campaigning full-bore in Florida ahead of its high-stakes primary Tuesday, with its rich prize of 57 winner-take-all delegates to the Republican National Convention in September.

The state was to host a Republican candidate debate in the city of Boca Raton late Thursday that could tip results toward any of the candidates.

"On the eve of a primary, when people who have not been paying attention get a chance to do that, it could be quite decisive," Richard Noyes, an analyst at the Media Research Center in Alexandria, Virginia, said of the debate.

After winning South Carolina's Republican primary last Saturday, McCain picked up a crop of Florida endorsements and one from General Norman Schwarzkopf, who led allied forces in the 1991 Gulf War.

He also bagged a new victory in Louisiana, where preliminary results showed he won the state's caucuses on Tuesday.

A poll of Florida voters Wednesday showed McCain with 25 percent heading into Tuesday's primary, and statistically tied with Romney on 23 percent.

Giuliani, who is staking his presidential campaign on Florida after all but ignoring the early nominating contests, trailed on just 15 percent, alongside Huckabee, in the St. Petersburg Times poll.

Giuliani on Wednesday sidestepped the question whether he would continue his race if he loses the crucial contest in Florida.

"We're going to win in Florida. I have a very good feeling about it," the former New York mayor told CNN.

NY: McCain Ahead Giuliani

Giuliani trailing on home ground: poll
Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:07pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is trailing in the race for the Republican presidential nomination even on his home turf of New York state, a new poll showed on Monday.

The WNBC/Marist poll ahead of the February 5 primaries in New York showed 34 percent of registered Republicans support John McCain, compared to 23 percent for Giuliani. Among Republicans likely to vote, McCain kept his 34 percent support, while Giuliani was tied in second place with Mitt Romney at 19 percent.

McCain's campaign has been boosted by wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina in the state-by-state race to pick the two candidates to contest the November 4 election to succeed President George W. Bush.

Giuliani, whose once large lead in national polls has evaporated, largely bypassed early voting states and focused on Florida, which votes on January 29.

As the former New York mayor who won national recognition in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, Giuliani would hope for a strong showing in New York.

But the poll showed 46 percent of registered Republicans in New York think Arizona Sen. McCain is the Republican most likely to beat the Democratic candidate in November. Nineteen percent saw former Massachusetts Gov. Romney as the most electable and 15 percent picked Giuliani as most electable.

Another local politician, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, appeared to be in a strong position ahead of the New York primary for the Democratic Party nomination.

The poll showed her with the support of 48 percent of Democrats likely to vote in the primary, followed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama with 32 percent.

The survey of 1,467 New York state registered voters was conducted January 15-17, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, the poll said.

Neither party has established a clear front-runner, as the first major state-by-state battles produced multiple winners.

(Reporting by Claudia Parsons, editing by Vicki Allen)

Rudy Calls Out John, Mitt

Rudy Calls Out McCain and Romney on Bush Tax Cuts

ABC News’ Jan Simmonds reports: At the mega Florida retirement community, The Villages, today, Rudy Giuliani did something he has shied away from this entire campaign. He called out his fellow Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney, by name, for failing to support the Bush tax cuts.

“I supported the Bush tax cuts,” said Giuliani. “John McCain voted with the Democrats against the tax cuts twice. And Mitt Romney did not clearly support the Bush tax cuts. Now, I clearly supported the Bush tax cuts for a very simple reason -- because I had done the same thing several years earlier. I had done the same thing in New York. I knew it would work. I knew it would work to grow our economy.”

While not using the harshest of language, Giuliani has been vigilant in his efforts to not go after his fellow Republicans unless they went after him first. He told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos in December that, as a rule, he does not "criticize" fellow Republicans.

"I try to follow the rule, if you attack me, or attack my record, and then I have to explain it. And in the nature of explaining it, [if] I have to point out that your record was weaker in that area than mine, then I will do it," Giuliani said.

"But if you don’t attack me, I have no right to attack you. I mean, there’s no point in that."
This change is a significant one, since Giuliani and his campaign now appear ready to put the gloves on and get into the fight.

Asked at a press avail following The Villages rally, Giuliani acted as if the change in rhetoric was not a big deal.

“I just pointed out where there were differences,” he said, repeating the lines he gave during the rally, adding that Romney was “equivocal in his support.”

In recent weeks, Giuliani has been an afterthought in the minds of most Americans, sitting on the sidelines while his competitors battled it out in Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada.

But starting tomorrow, all eyes will fall upon the Sunshine State, and after being camped out in Florida since the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8, the Giuliani campaign feels that the extra time they have devoted on the ground, combined with what they tout as their organizational strength, will pave the way for a victory on Jan. 29.

If the Giuliani strategy works, the single win in Florida would leapfrog the former New York City mayor to the top of the Republican delegate count.

Paul 2nd in Nevada

Paul Happy With 2nd in Nevada

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Texas Rep. Ron Paul said his second-place finish in Nevada's GOP presidential caucuses on Saturday showed his message is being heard and that he has more supporters than he thought.

"Millions of people have heard this message and this is why coming in second is very great, it sends a great message," Paul said to loud cheers. He conceded that South Carolina's primary, where he was running a distant fifth, was not his to win.

Paul took several swipes at former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who got fewer votes than Paul in Nevada and was trailing Paul in returns being tabulated Saturday night in South Carolina. He told the audience about a confrontation with Giuliani during this month's debate in South Carolina. He said Giuliani "cut me down."

"Tonight, if this is the final tally on that confrontation, we got three times as much vote as the mayor got," he said, referring to Nevada.

Paul collected four delegates from the Nevada caucus to Giuliani's one.

Paul's campaign supports low taxes and reduced government spending.

McCain Wins SC

McCain Celebrates Southern Win
Jan 19, 9:21 PM (ET)

By LIZ SIDOTI

WASHINGTON (AP) - Republican John McCain called his victory in South Carolina's presidential primary on Saturday evidence that his campaign "can carry right through" Florida into the giant round of caucuses and primaries on Feb. 5. "I know it's not easy," he told The Associated Press, "and we've got a long way to go."

South Carolina was where McCain's presidential prospects died eight years ago, and he savored the victory this time.

"It just took us awhile, that's all," he said in the interview. "Eight years is not a long time."

This time, he said, "It sure was nice to have a lot of our old friends be happier that we won."

Asked if he was now the front-runner for the GOP nomination, McCain demurred.

"I don't know," he said, "we like to run from behind."

Still, he expressed optimism going forward.

"I'm very confident that we'll win in Florida," he said.

"We showed that the first-in-the-South primary is a very important victory, and it gives us a very important progress that we can carry right through Florida and February 5th," he said.
McCain said he planned to stress pocketbook and national security issues going forward.

"People care about our nation's security and they're worried about our economy," McCain said.

"I'm going to be talking to them about those issues and how I'm best qualified to lead the nation."

Huckabee McCain Dead Heat

Huckabee, McCain in South Carolina dead heat
Sat Jan 19, 2008 1:19am EST
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) - Republicans John McCain and Mike Huckabee are in a statistical dead heat as voters head to the polls in South Carolina's presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, shaved six points off McCain's lead in the tracking poll to trail the Arizona senator by just one point, 27 percent to 26 percent, as voting began -- well within the 3.4 percent margin of error.

In Nevada, which also holds a presidential nominating contest on Saturday, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained a stable 6-point lead over rival Barack Obama, 45 percent to 39 percent, with John Edwards well back at 6 percent.

In both states, large pools of undecided or persuadable voters make the outcomes unpredictable. The uncertainty is compounded in Nevada, a relative newcomer to early nominating contests, because it has no real track record on turnout.

"It's a very close race in Nevada -- it's all about turnout," said pollster John Zogby. "It's probably Clinton's to lose, but how engaged will people be to come out and vote?"

Huckabee, a Baptist minister whose January 3 win in Iowa was fueled by support from evangelicals, has pulled even with McCain in South Carolina by gaining ground among Republicans and conservatives.

McCain still holds healthy leads among independents and Democrats, who do not hold their primary in South Carolina until next Saturday.

"It was a good day for Huckabee, he caught McCain among Republicans," Zogby said. "The key for McCain is going to be how many Democrats turn out for him here."

South Carolina and Nevada are the next battlegrounds in a chaotic race to choose candidates for November's election to succeed President George W. Bush, and so far no one in either party has been able to claim the role of favorite.

The first five major contests produced five different winners. Saturday's contests will give several top contenders a chance to win consecutive contests for the first time.

About 7 percent of Republican voters in South Carolina were unsure who they would support, and about 6 percent of Democrats in Nevada uncertain. Nearly one of every five Republican voters in South Carolina who back top contenders said they could still change their minds.

OBAMA VS. CLINTON

Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, split the first two Democratic battles and have been running close in polls in Nevada.

Clinton, who would be the first woman U.S. president, led Obama among women, older voters and voters in union households. She also had double-digit advantages among white and Hispanic voters.

Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, led by almost 3-to-1 among black voters and enjoyed a double-digit edge among younger voters.
Republicans also hold a contest in Nevada on Saturday in a race that has drawn less attention. The Republican race in Nevada was not polled by Zogby.

The Republican presidential contenders have focused instead on South Carolina, the first primary in the South. McCain, who won New Hampshire, hopes to rebound from his loss in Michigan on Tuesday.

McCain finished second there to Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who won with promises to revive the state's ailing manufacturing base and ease economic worries.

The economy was also the top concern of South Carolina voters, with 31 percent listing it first. Immigration was next at 17 percent and the Iraq war followed at 15 percent.

Romney was in third place in South Carolina with 16 percent, while former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who has staked his future in the race on a strong showing here, was at 12 percent.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul was at 4 percent and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at 3 percent.

The rolling tracking polls of 817 likely Republican voters in South Carolina and 757 likely Democratic voters in Nevada were taken Thursday and Friday. The Nevada poll had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

In a rolling poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in order to track changing momentum.
(Editing by Todd Eastham)

Last minutes in NV, SC

Last-minute campaigning in Nevada and South Carolina
By Jeff Zeleny and Michael Luo
Published: January 18, 2008

LAS VEGAS: On the eve of the Nevada caucuses, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton were following similar paths across the state, making last-minute appeals Friday to voters in Las Vegas, Reno and Elko. John Edwards, who polls show is in a distant third place, held a morning rally before leaving Nevada to focus on future contests.

Nevada is the third stop in the Democratic presidential nominating fight. Obama and Clinton have been locked in a close contest, their strategists say, with voter turnout remaining an open question.

As the candidates made their final pitches to voters, their organizations geared up in a state that has not previously had a starring role in the early stages of the presidential nomination process. Presidential campaigns have been plotting for nearly a year how best to drive vast numbers of Nevadans to the more than 500 caucus sites statewide by 11:30 a.m. local time on Saturday, according to The Associated Press.

In the finals hours of the campaign here, the candidates increased the volume of their rhetoric. At a rally in Las Vegas on Thursday evening, Obama mocked his rivals for how they answered a question during a debate on Tuesday.

"Folks, they don't tell you what they mean," Obama said.

Although the Republicans were focusing on South Carolina, one of the candidates, former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, was also in Nevada. He flew from Las Vegas to Elko, in the northern part of the state, for an early-morning rally attended by about 250 people.

A new poll by The Las Vegas Review-Journal showed him with a commanding lead over Senator John McCain of Arizona in Nevada's Republican caucuses, which have essentially been uncontested by the other major candidates.

Romney continued his mantra about bringing change to Washington but also made sure to dwell some on illegal immigration, an important issue in the state, and his own family values.

He is not broadcasting televisions commercials in Nevada but went on the air earlier this month with radio commercials that spotlight his opposition to same-sex marriage and his hard-line stance on illegal immigration.

Romney was to fly Friday afternoon from Reno to Burbank, California, to tape "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno.

"It occurred to us the best way to be in South Carolina and Nevada at the same time was to be on 'The Tonight Show,' " said Eric Fehrnstrom, the campaign's traveling press secretary. "Plus, it worked for Mike Huckabee: He won Iowa."

Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, of course famously left Iowa on the eve of the caucuses there to appear on "The Tonight Show."

McCain spent Friday touring through South Carolina, pushing his national security credentials and a proposal that would improve health care for the state's many veterans.

Primaries in South Carolina are on Saturday for Republicans and a week later for Democrats.

At a stop in Florence, South Carolina, McCain held aloft a copy of USA Today, which carried a front page headline saying "75% of Areas in Baghdad Secure."

"My friends, I want to remind you, that was at great cost," McCain said. "If we had done what the Democrats wanted to do six months ago and withdrawn from Iraq, Al Qaeda would be telling the world that they had defeated the United States of America.

"And my friends, we are succeeding. I also would remind you it's still only 75 percent. It's not 100 percent. And so if you forget everything I mention to you this morning, please remember this: Al Qaeda's on the run, but not defeated."

Later, at a campaign stop in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, McCain said that he would work with President George W. Bush and the Congress to improve the economy.

"My friends, what we need to do to start with before we go any further is stop the out-of-control spending," he said.

"I still believe that the fundamental underpinnings of our economy are good and strong," he said, adding that he would like to cut corporate taxes and make Bush's tax cuts permanent.

In Bluffton, South Carolina, Huckabee said that his Southern roots helped him grasp the problems of South Carolina voters.

"We really want to win here," Huckabee said, according to The Associated Press, "in part because as governor of a state of similar circumstances, I think I have a better understanding than anybody else running for president what unique challenges we face - not just in Southern states, but especially in Southern states."

After winning the Iowa caucuses with the support of evangelical Christians, he is facing competition for their votes from Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee, even though many in that group are supporting Huckabee.

Michael Luo reported from Elko, Nevada. Michael Cooper contributed reporting from South Carolina.

McCain, Romney On Flag

McCain, Romney hit over Confederate flag
January 18, 2008

By Stephen Dinan

COLUMBIA, S.C. — The Confederate battle flag — an issue that has confounded politicians in South Carolina for more than a decade — is back again, this time in the form of radio ads attacking Republican presidential candidates Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney for criticizing the flag.

Paid for by Americans for the Preservation of American Culture, the ads also single out rival Republican Mike Huckabee for praise, saying the former Arkansas governor defended the flag as a state and heritage issue. They began running yesterday.

"Mitt Romney's been trying, but when it comes to bashing the Confederate flag, he can't hold a candle to John McCain. McCain's been doing it — calling the flag a racist symbol — for years," one of the minutelong ads says.

Another ad goes straight for Mr. Romney, with the announcer saying, "Romney let fly in a CNN debate, saying 'that flag shouldn't be flown' and 'that's not a flag I recognize.' "

Ron Wilson, a former national commander of the Sons of Confederate Veterans and a South Carolinian who was involved in raising money for the ads, said they will be run through Saturday's primary on every radio station in the state that carries the radio shows of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity or Bill O'Reilly.

He wouldn't say how big the ad buy was, only that he has been told the commercials will reach 60 percent to 65 percent of all Republican primary voters.

In his 2000 presidential bid, Mr. McCain, of Arizona, seemed to straddle the issue, first calling the flag "a symbol of racism and slavery" but then releasing a statement saying he understood both sides.

"Some view it as a symbol of slavery; others view it as a symbol of heritage. Personally, I see the battle flag as a symbol of heritage," Mr. McCain said.

Candidate George W. Bush, meanwhile, said it was up to the people of the state to decide, an acceptable stance to pro-flag groups at the time.

In his new book released last year, "Hard Call: Great Decisions and the Extraordinary People Who Made Them," Mr. McCain labeled his support for the flag one of the "worst decisions" he ever made.

Some voters don't want to let him drop the issue. Mr. McCain has been dogged by flag supporters at many of his events here, including yesterday's rally outside his Columbia headquarters.

"I just think anybody that's attacked the Confederate flag has attacked my ancestry and the South," said James Green, 58, as he marched outside the rally holding a sign that read "The South does not want John McCain."

Neither Mr. Romney's campaign nor Mr. McCain's responded to requests for comment yesterday.

But when asked by a voter Wednesday about holding a position at odds with a majority of state residents, who support flying the flag, Mr. McCain said the issue is over.

"My answer to that is I can't be more proud of the overwhelming majority of the people of this state who came together in taking that flag off the top of the Capitol," Mr. McCain said, earning a standing ovation, according to CBS News.

As for Mr. Romney, Mr. Wilson said that the former Massachusetts governor's comments at the CNN/YouTube debate were bad, but that what really upset Confederate battle-flag supporters was that a Web site from South Carolina supporters of Mr. Romney also attacked the Sons of Confederate Veterans group itself.

"He actually attacks the Sons of Confederate Veterans, which is the first time that's ever been done," Mr. Wilson said.

Mr. Wilson said presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is good on this issue from his standpoint, while candidate Fred Thompson is a mixed bag.

He said Mr. Thompson's answer at the CNN-YouTube debate was troublesome. Mr. Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee, said that the flag isn't necessarily racist but that he supported the state's decision to limit its display on public property. His campaign called later to try to smooth over the issue. Mr. Wilson said they decided not to run ads against Mr. Thompson, for now, because they don't see him as a major player here.

Mr. Wilson said as much as 8 percent of the primary electorate could consider the battle flag a voting issue: "This is close enough now that this issue is probably going to determine whether McCain wins or Huckabee."

John McCain Martyrdom

The martyrdom of John McCain
By: Jonathan Martin
January 18, 2008 02:10 PM EST

COLUMBIA, S.C. —The national media thinks John McCain is under siege again, and his campaign is only too happy to help reporters file their stories.

At a rally Thursday, outside McCain’s headquarters just down the street from the state capitol here, the candidate and a key local supporter, Sen. Lindsey Graham, are explaining that sorcerers of the dark political arts are at work.

“There’s a lot being said out there on phone calls, in the mail, that’s a bunch of garbage — ignore it,” Graham proclaimed. “We know the truth.”

“You know that a lot of nasty things are going on,” McCain added, “but ignore that stuff.”

The truth is, not that many nasty things are going on in 2008, certainly not compared to the bare-knuckled 2000 GOP presidential primary here, and probably not much more so than in your garden-variety campaign for elected office.

A nasty flier touching on McCain’s POW experience has surfaced and a round of anti-McCain automated phone calls has been launched by a pro-Huckabee third-party group — but those are the same calls that were placed in every other early primary state. Other than that, there’s been little in the way of dirty tricks.

McCain’s lagging rivals don’t mention his name in stump speeches, they don’t criticize him and they aren’t even airing negative ads against him.

The campaign is savvy enough to understand the almost unslakable thirst among national reporters to write stories heavy with tales of the sort of down-and-dirty tactics that characterized the race between McCain and George W. Bush in 2000.

The votes were barely all counted in New Hampshire before McCain began facing breathless questions such as, did he have any trepidation about going back to the South Carolina killing field?

“Those rubes down in South Carolina, they vote because of dirty, nasty politics,” said Tucker Eskew, a Palmetto State native and former top Bush adviser in the 2000 race, sarcastically giving voice to what he and many others here see as the outsider view of the state. “The gloves are on — and that doesn’t make for nearly an interesting story.”

“Will South Carolinians see their way through their own hatred to do the right thing?” posits former top McCain strategist John Weaver, also mimicking perception of the state’s voters in elite quarters. “It must be oh-so-entertaining at Elaine’s.”

Indeed, the national media is consumed by the McCain-as-victim narrative just two days out from the Republican primary, with the major newspapers filled with accounts of McCain valiantly fending off smear tactics and the networks focused on the same.

A Thursday evening segment reports that McCain’s “South Carolina Truth Squad” is doing a better job of combating negative ads than in 2000.

Of course, the creation of the group was as much about reminding voters that McCain was attacked in 2000 as it was about defending against actual attacks.

The squad convened a conference call on Tuesday over the POW flier, but they've not had much to do since, aside from decrying the “Trust Huckabee” group’s automated calls — the same calls that have been launched against most of the other candidates as well.

Attorney General Henry McMaster recorded an automated call on behalf of McCain that was sent out to rebut the “Trust Huckabee” calls — but also to point out that McCain was getting hit.

If McCain is any sort of victim this time around, he’s a victim of his own success. Through the hard work of healing old wounds, with soft threats about trains leaving the station and a bit of cold cash for campaigns and consultants, McCain has become the closest thing here to the establishment candidate in a race that lacks a consensus pick.

“The people that beat him in 2000 are for him now” is how Trey Walker, one of McCain’s top advisers here, explained it, doing his best to suppress a smile and talk up the efforts of “Trust Huckabee.”

“He now has the establishment,” Walker bragged.

Thursday’s rally in Columbia gave witness to it. Inside the tent set up in McCain’s headquarters parking lot, a procession of lawmakers took their turn at the microphone before McCain’s convoy arrived. In the sort of towel-snapping bonhomie that is native to Southern capitals, one statehouse insider after another explained that they, too, had been for Bush in 2000 but were now siding with the former insurgent.

Huddled inside McCain’s headquarters and out of the bitter-for-Carolina cold after the rally, McMaster, a smooth-talking Southern pol if there ever was one, was asked directly if he could ever remember another South Carolina race where the front-runner was subjected to nary a negative ad or even any attacks by his rivals on the stump.

“Well, that’s a pretty good question,” McMaster drawled, at a rare loss for words. “Let me think about it.”

And so with Mitt Romney effectively waving the white flag in South Carolina and Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson seemingly more interested in being vice president or at least retaining their friendship with him, McCain appears headed into Saturday’s primary without a single glove being laid on him.

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